Second guessing the second-base situation
July 21st, 2008 by PipIn the recent four-game series, Cardinal castoff Edgar Gonzalez blasted his former organization with 15 total bases (8-for-18), an OBP of .474, SLG of .833 and a GPA of .422. Sunday, the Brewers dealt for the Giants’ Ray Durham, owner of a career .352 OBP. And Sunday afternoon, with the game tied and the bases loaded in the ninth inning, Aaron Miles hit a walkoff grand slam. What better entree into a discussion about the Cardinals’ second-base situation?
Have the Cardinals made the right decision in going with the three-headed hydra of Miles, Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy (you remember him, right?)? It’s easy to be awed by the weekend performance of Gonzalez, whom the Cardinals let go over the winter. But rather than be swayed by performance against one’s own club (See Joel Pineiro, Jeff Weaver, Roger Cedeno and Miles himself), we’ll look at Gonzalez’s and Durham’s season numbers, along with the Cardinal second basemen:.
| 2008 Actual | OBP | GPA | RC27 |
| Durham | .384 | .277 | 6.01 |
| Gonzalez | .363 | .298 | 5.32 |
| Miles | .363 | .271 | 5.04 |
| Cardinals | .351 | .253 | 4.67 |
| Kennedy | .318 | .234 | 3.59 |
| Ryan | .297 | .210 | 2.90 |
As for Gonzalez, that was a preseason decision; it’s only fair to judge it in light of what the Cardinals could’ve known or expected then. What were the preseason projections telling us?
| 2008 CHONE | OBP | GPA | RC27 |
| Durham | .332 | .252 | 4.86 |
| Gonzalez | .327 | .242 | 4.41 |
| Kennedy | .335 | .242 | 4.35 |
| Ryan | .297 | .206 | 4.34 |
| Miles | .323 | .233 | 4.12 |
What to make of this? Before the season started, the Cardinals might’ve figured that Gonzalez would provide only the slightest upgrade from Kennedy (whom they had already committed to two more years of a three-year deal) and/or Ryan, at least offensively. Since Gonzalez is no more versatile than Kennedy, the logical decision was to keep Ryan around for the utility infield spot. Sensible enough. As it’s turned out, however, Gonzalez has shown himself to be much more of an offensive weapon than either Kennedy or Ryan, and even moreso than Miles, who likewise is outhitting his projections. Will they keep up their unexpected paces? That’s one of the amusements of the sport, of course, but it’s looking like the Cardinals missed the boat on Gonzalez.
Now to Durham. The preseason projections are less important here, since we’re considering a trade based on what we know today, which is that Durham is the most productive hitter of all of the players heretofore discussed. And it’s not even really close.
Then there’s fielding. The rap against EGonz was that he had no leather, whereas the argument for the Cardinal triple platoon is that they can at least play some defense. We didn’t notice that Gonzalez’s skills were terribly deficient in the recent series (though the unturned forceout on Rick Ankiel’s ball led to the Pads’ demise Friday), and indeed, so far the rap has been a bum one:
| 2008 Fielding | RZR |
| Kennedy | .871 |
| Gonzalez | .852 |
| Miles | .788 |
| Ryan | .781 |
| Durham | .768 |
So one of three things is likely true: 1) Gonzalez really is deficient as a fielder and time will reveal it, 2) The Cardinals need to do a better job of evaluating fielding at a minor-league level or 3) The claim about Gonzalez’s fielding was a specious justification for never giving him a chance to prove himself in the bigs. We’re not going to level any accusations; we’re comfortable giving the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt. But moving on to Durham and his fielding: In previous seasons, Durham hasn’t been that distinguishable from Kennedy with the glove, so the big RZR margin between them so far in 2008 may be misleading. Durham is no great shakes as a defender, but we seem to recall someone saying that defense was overrated.
The irony with the Brewers acquiring Durham is that they probably need him less than the Cardinals do. He’s not going to automatically win the pennant for them, but at the price the Brewers paid — $1.5 million and, in Jeff Sackmann’s words, "no more than a throw-in" and a pitcher who is unlikely to be "a difference-maker in the bigs" — the Cardinals likely could’ve had him for little pain.
It might be that Kennedy’s multi-year deal has again created a seemingly intractible position for the organization. Funny how even a relatively small contract can prevent future wise moves. Brewers’ manager Doug Melvin said about the Durham trade, "We’re trying to add as many good players as we can. We’re trying to win this thing." John Mozeliak and the Cardinals have one less player to choose from and one less day to prove that they’re trying to win it, too.




